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Military personel has a really hard time. They put their lives on line so that everyone could enjoy a peaceful days and nights at their homes. Military staff in active duty is underpaid. If they are short of cash, they can’t get a part-time job to suplement their income. They simply have no time for that, and, in addition, they can be called on duty at any time of the day or night, which certainly disqualify to have an additional job that could pay their bills and provide some extra cash they need. People fighting for their country and dying for it don’t make enough money to pay their current bills, which is pretty sad.
Soldiers often don’t have time to remember their obligations, because they have more important things to do. This often results in bad credit. Having a bad credit is a bad thing, because banks don’t want to lend them money. Fortunately, Faxless Loans 24 provides bad credit personal loans for military at very good rates. The soldiers may enjoy low fees and they don’t have to remember about the loan, because it will be automatically deducted from their bank account.
Despite all the talk about ‘toxic assets’, the fact is that the large majority of this structured paper is at virtually no risk of default. This fact should not come as a surprise. Consider for example an ABS structure containing, say, vehicle or student loans. The individual borrowers will mostly make an effort to repay, since they do not want to face the difficulties of having a poor credit record. Most will have the income to repay as well. In a pool of such loans, even in a deep recession, it would be quite out of line with all previous experience of such lending to have losses of more than say 10 or 15 per cent on the portfolio. This means that the senior investment-grade tranches, the top, say, 80 per cent of the structure, are indeed very safe. Allowing for the other forms of credit protection in these structures, overcollateralization and interest income, the losses on the portfolio have to go well above 20 per cent before these tranches are at risk. The very best investment-grade tranches, those rated AAA, have even more protection. They might be the top 70 or 75 per cent, so losses have to rise well above 25 per cent before they are in difficulties.
The big problem for the banks – the reason they can no longer fund themselves – is that investor confidence in all structured assets has now evaporated. Even the AAA tranches of safe asset-backed securities cannot be sold. Where there are transactions, they are at prices 10 or 20 per cent below par value – that is, so far below any sensible assessment of their fundamental value that no holders will part with them at this price unless forced to do so.
The amount of this good-quality but illiquid paper is extremely large. Some further calculations using the data as a starting point suggest that, after excluding around $600 billion of dubious restructured ABS-CDOs and CDO2 which never deserved AAA ratings in the first place, there is still about $4.8 trillion of extremely safe AAA structured paper outstanding.
Who was holding all these securities? Regrettably, there are few statistics on who was holding what. The IMF has collected views from the market participants and reports broad estimates of holdings in its global financial stability reports. Commentary from many industry professionals makes it clear that the majority of the AAA paper was kept by banks, either in trading or treasury portfolios. My own judgement, based on this information and discussion with a number of industry professionals, is that about $3 trillion of the investment grade paper has remained with banks.
What about the riskier mezzanine and equity tranches? Much of the mezzanine tranches were sold into restructured vehicles, so were again often held by banks. Equity tranches were sometimes held by the structuring departments. It is very difficult to say where the rest have ended up.
If most of the new credit securities were sound, what then went wrong? The big weakness of the new credit arrangements was that banks assumed that there would always be a liquid market for trading these securities. If this were true – that securities could always be sold – then it was safe to finance portfolios of long-term credit securities using large amounts of low-cost short-term borrowing.
Banks pursued this flawed strategy on a huge scale. Analysis of bank accounting statements suggests that banks worldwide held at least $3 trillion (nearly a quarter of US national income) of supposedly high- quality AAA credit securities, financed short term. But this maturity mismatch, borrowing short to hold long-term assets, is an inherently risky portfolio strategy, susceptible to collapse whenever there is a loss of investor confidence.
The growing losses on US sub-prime mortgage lending triggered a loss of confidence in all forms of structured and mortgage-backed credit instruments. This had a global impact because so many banks worldwide held and manufactured different kinds of these instruments. They all tried to reduce their exposures at the same time. As a result there were now many sellers of these securities but hardly any buyers. Sellers but no buyers meant that trading slowed to a halt, and prices collapsed. The liquidity which all banks assumed they could rely on was no longer there.
Why were there no buyers from outside the banking system? Because of the market freeze, prices of senior structured and mortgage-backed securities had fallen well below any reasonable estimate of their underlying value. They should have been attractive investments at these bargain prices. But non-bank investors did not understand these instruments very well and if they did perceive opportunities they were subject to regulatory and other constraints that prevent them purchasing assets when prices are low.
A particular problem seems to have been so-called ‘solvency regulations’, which are supposed to help financial institutions avoid insolvency but actually have the opposite effect, exaggerating swings in market prices and making it more likely that institutions will fail in a financial crisis. These impacts are further exaggerated by the mark to market accounting rules. No one has an incentive to ‘catch a falling knife’ – that is, to purchase an asset that has fallen in value – until they are very sure that prices have bottomed out. Until then the asset has the potential both to add to your capital requirement if the asset is downgraded (under banking and insurance regulations) and to result in short-term losses if the price falls further (IFRS and US GAAP accounting standards). Such mispricing could be substantial and last a long time.
So the principal explanation of why this has been such a global crisis is that banks worldwide (wrongly) assumed that they were safe borrowing short to hold long-term structured mortgage assets. If funding withdrew they could always limit their exposures by cutting back on their portfolios, for example by selling loans to other banks, or taking out ‘hedges’ (insurance contracts) against further losses. But this idea, of active credit portfolio management, does not work when all banks are in trouble. Another analogy is with a fire in a crowded hotel lobby. Everyone tries to get out through the revolving doors, but only a few can do so at any one time, and in the crush everyone is trapped. What is required instead is an orderly exit, one investor at a time, to allow all to exit their positions without huge loss.
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